Last week I broke down two polls that gave Hillary a 6 point overall lead over Trump. Both of those polls over-sampled Democrats. When you corrected their methodology the polls showed a tie between the two candidates. When you added that new data into the RCP average (really the only data you should care about) Hillary’s lead vanishes into a tie.
Dirty poll tricks are nothing new to politics, and the casual observer doesn’t understand poll science. So it becomes easy to manipulate people in order to steer election results. It’s highly unethical, but common.
No one should care about polls this early anyway, but … Merica!
Now the news headlines are ringing with a new poll showing Hillary has a 12 point lead over Trump. That would be interesting considering he’s been gaining on her since the Orlando terrorist attack, but I digress.
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What Jim Hoft over at The Gateway Pundit is point out is that the latest Reuters poll sampled 52% Democrats (already a major problem), and only 35% Republicans. Highly problematic and inaccurate results from a clearly skewed poll should be disregarded. You can see for yourself on Reuters’ website if you don’t trust GP.
There is another poll showing a 12 point lead for Hillary over Trump by ABC/Washington Post.
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If you adjust for Gary Johnson, it’s a 10 point lead for Hillary.
However, the poll over-samples Democrats too. Guess by how much. Go ahead … guess. Yep, 12 points. How very coincidental that a poll showing Hillary has a 12 point lead over Trump over-samples Democrats by 12 points.
Sampling should be as close to the 3-4% margin of error the poll strives for. Ideally, you’d get 33% Democrat, 33% Republican, 33% independents to give you an accurate poll.
In two weeks, we’ve had at least 4 polls showing Hillary with a lead over Trump by almost the exact same number as Democrats are being over-sampled.
This race right now is a tie.